Forex Flash: FOMC minutes to be more interesting than today’s statement – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - TD Securities analysts believe that the minutes of today’s FOMC meeting may be more interesting than the actual outcome, “as the minutes will show that the weaker run of US data has shifted the debate away from the exit of QE”. Today’s statement should also give signs of what is to come: “We expect the assessment of the economic and inflation outlook to be downgraded, reflecting a shifting emphasis relative to March when the prospect of a labor market recovery was beginning to tilt the balance towards tapering. This time around the rising uncertainty about the impact of fiscal austerity on growth and further moderation in core inflationary pressures will likely shift the balance back to an easing bias. And even though we do not expect the dial to go all the way to increasing the size of purchases, the risk of this has increased, albeit one that remains quite low”, wrote analyst Alvin Pontoh, also eyeing the ADP employment (looking for a reading of 160K, essentially on top of the actual outcome for March (158K), but slightly higher than consensus of 150K) and US ISM manufacturing PMI (slight downside risk and are looking for an outcome of 50.4 (mkt 50.7), which would leave the ISM at its lowest level since November 2012).