Forex Flash: AUD/USD expected to track closer to fair value - NAB

In view of NAB strategists, "in a world where investors are less desirous of adding to their stock of AAA-rated government bonds, then this removes a key source of support for the AUD, particularly evident since mid-2011."

NAB adds: "If the factors driving global investors into AUD bonds on credit grounds have now gone into abeyance, then AUD might now been expected to track closer to its fair value estimates, but if this is the case, it also cautions against getting too bearish on the AUD here since our models continue to estimate fair value at above parity, currently near 1.02."

Feb 11, 2013

Forex Flash: USD/JPY may target 91.80-92.00 - BBH

While USD/JPY is trading last at 92.71, near session highs, and off session lows at 92.35, with all Asian markets closed on holiday but Australia and NZ, “the dollar appears to have carved out a triangle pattern intersecting near JPY92.50 and JPY92.90,” says Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, Marc Chandler, who adds: “If this is a continuation pattern, a move toward JPY91.80-JPY92.00 would be targeted. On the other hand, a move above JPY93.00-20 would stabilize the tone and suggest a near-term consolidative tone,” the analyst concludes.

Forex: AUD/USD capped below 1.0320 on bad Aus housing data

Despite worst decline in housing finance data for Australia since late 2010, last at -1.5% for Dec and previous one revised lower to -0.7% from -0.5%, while most Asian markets closed on holiday, Aussie is still about flat since past Friday's weekly close, last at 1.0320, off session highs at 1.0325. The pair recovers from session lows at 1.0306.